--------------------------------------------- 
    THE BridgeNews FORUM: On farming, farm policy 
    and related agricultural issues. 
    --------------------------------------------- 
  
  * As Cases Increase, Agriculture Minister's Suggestion 
    Of 'Third Way' To Spread BSE Is Probably A Smokescreen 
  
  
    By David Walker, agricultural economist 
    BridgeNews 
    NORWICH, England--Understanding French politics has always required more  
than a good command of the language. This may explain why French Agriculture  
Minister Jean Glavany's recent comment about a ''mysterious third way'' for  
transmission of mad cow disease does not appear to make much sense. It is  
probably little more than a smokescreen. 
  
    Glavany's comment comes amid the current flare-up in the incidence of mad  
cow disease in France and official recognition that the previous forecast of  
a decline in the disease in France by 2001 was too optimistic. There have  
been 16 reported cases of mad cow disease, or bovine spongiform  
encephalopathy (BSE), in France so far this year, compared with five at the  
same time last year. 
  
    This should not have come as a surprise, however, given that the findings  
of a 1999 European Commission veterinary mission to France have been in the  
public domain for more than three months. The mission, which was probably  
prompted by the commission's concern over the low but increasing incidence of  
BSE in France even a year ago, found shortcomings in the surveillance and  
reporting of BSE and low levels of BSE-infected meat and bone meal in French  
cattle feed. 
  
    The British, who suffered a much more serious BSE epidemic in the early  
1990s, found that the principal, if not the only, means of transmission of  
the disease to cattle was through the feeding of infected meat and bone meal. 
  
    France banned the feeding of meat and bone meal in 1991 but, as was the  
case in Britain, the ban appears not to have been effectively implemented.  
This is evident from the incidence of BSE in French cattle born after 1991.  
France apparently tightened its controls in the mid-1990s and it is on the  
basis of this that BSE was expected to peter out by 2001. BSE typically takes  
three to eight years to develop. 
  
    The veterinary mission that visited France in early June, however, still  
found shortcomings in the implementation of the ban, including low levels of  
infection in cattle feed. In retrospect, it was surprising that the  
publication of the mission's report in January did not cause more concern in  
France. 
  
    In common with Britain, the recycling of the infection through the  
feeding of meat and bone meal is sufficient to explain the increase in the  
incidence of BSE in France. 
  
    The second suggested means of infection, maternal transmission, was the  
subject of a seven-year British research project. It suggested that progeny  
of infected animals have about a 10 percent increased chance of contracting  
BSE. A separate study of the entire British BSE database indicated that there  
was no maternal effect detectable in calves born more than two years before  
the onset of clinical disease in the mother. 
  
    Because BSE takes at least three years to develop and France has a policy  
of slaughtering the entire herd whenever a BSE case is found, maternal  
transmission cannot be a factor in the French situation, unless significant  
numbers of French BSE cases go unreported. 
  
    Little is known about the ''mysterious third way'' of transmitting BSE,  
even by Glavany. He is reported to have said, by way of clarification, that  
he had no new information on the subject and was only repeating what some  
French scientists have been suggesting informally for some time. 
  
    The French government has had three months since the publication of the  
European Union veterinary mission report in which to work out how to handle  
the situation in a political context. Its chosen strategy, in suggesting a  
third means of transmission without indicating what it is or providing any  
scientific evidence, has appeared odd. 
  
    This immediately re-ignited concerns over the safety of beef in France.  
Both consumer and farm interests, in uncharacteristic accord, were openly  
critical of the French agriculture minister. 
  
    The strategy may, however, have diverted attention, at least temporarily,  
from the shortcomings of the French government's surveillance of its feed  
manufacturing industry. And ''the mysterious third way'' has also been added  
to the French defense of its illegal ban on British beef imports. 
  
    It is possible that the French government is simply playing for time, a  
strategy used by the British government in a similar situation with mixed  
effect in the mid-1990s. 
  
    Evidence appears to be emerging that the connection between new variant  
Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (nvCJD), a rare but fatal human disease, and BSE is  
less direct than originally supposed. The perception that nvCJD is contracted  
by eating BSE-infected beef, although circumstantial rather than actually  
proven, is widely and strongly held. 
  
    Based on the incidence of BSE in Britain, some estimates of future nvCJD  
cases were in the hundreds of thousands. In 1999 there were 11 cases, down  
from 17 in 1998. This year, one death from nvCJD had been confirmed by the  
end of March and one was awaiting confirmation. 
  
    Furthermore, Britain's chief medical officer, Liam Donaldson, recently  
announced the initial results of an ongoing new study that found no evidence  
of nvCJD in 3,000 specimens of human tissue analyzed. While he emphasized  
that this in itself did not prove anything, scientists seem to be  
increasingly less concerned that there will be an epidemic of nvCJD. 
  
    In Britain, health concerns over beef consumption certainly appear to be  
abating. But the same may not happen in France in time to rescue the French  
government from the challenge of admitting the true cause and extent of BSE  
infection without prompting concerns over beef consumption. 
  
    If French perceptions of a direct link between BSE and nvCJD do fade, the  
''mysterious third way'' will then be downgraded to a cattle-industry issue.  
This is something the French agriculture minister may feel better placed to  
handle. 
  
    DAVID WALKER, an agricultural economist, lives on his family's farm  
outside Norwich, England. He recently served as senior economist in London  
for the Home-Grown Cereals Authority and previously was executive director of  
the Alberta Grain Commission in Canada. He also maintains a Web site at  
http://www.openi.co.uk/. His views are not necessarily those of BridgeNews, whose  
ventures include the Internet site http://www.bridge.com/. 
  
    OPINION ARTICLES and letters to the editor are welcome. Send submissions  
to Sally Heinemann, editorial director, BridgeNews, 3 World Financial  
Center, 200 Vesey St.,  28th Floor, New York, N.Y. 10281-1009. You may also  
call (212) 372-7510, fax (212)  372-2707 or send e-mail to opinion@bridge.com. 
  
    EDITORS: A color photo of the author is available from KRT Photo Service. 
  
[Begin BridgeLinks] 
  
    A COMPLETE SUMMARY of recent opinion articles is available on  
BridgeStation.  (Story .5400) 
  
[SLUG: MAD-COW-DISEASE-FRANCE:BN _ op-ed] 
[End BridgeLinks]