Weather appears to have had more of an influence on Canadian supply and, therefore, export prospects this year than economic conditions. Both temperatures and moisture conditions were exceptional.
Typically, and conveniently, May, June and July, when crops are most in need of moisture, are the wettest months on the Prairies. The majority of planting is completed in May and by August, crops are normally ripening. The 30-year average data for Saskatoon which is located in central Saskatchewan and, therefore, central to the Prairies illustrate how conveniently moisture, temperature and day length come together to allow crops to be grown in a very short season (Graph 1 and 2).
But the weather did not follow this script in 2009. Over much of the western Prairies, seedbed moisture was not adequate for reasonable germination until late in June which resulted in very uneven maturity. In the eastern Prairies excessive moisture, including flooding, in some areas resulted in delayed sowing. Almost everywhere temperatures were below average for most of the growing season.
By the end of August, crops were generally assessed three weeks behind average in maturity and crop yields and output were expected to be well below normal. But just as the prior four months had been unusually cold, September was unusually warm.
The extra month allowed crops to even up, much of the crop to be harvested and quality prospects to improve. October, however, proved to be unusually cold and wet, with a series of weather systems producing enough moisture to halt harvest, but not worthwhile moisture reserves for the spring. In Saskatoon rain or snow was recorded on at least 17 days in October. Over the last week or so the weather settled again and harvest has been completed in most areas. Because October was unusually cool for crops, quality did not suffer in the way it may have otherwise.
The 10% decline in 2009 spring wheat production to 16.6Mt from 2008, results from a smaller planted area and lower yields. The decline will more than offset this year's higher beginning stocks; exports and ending
stocks are expected to be lower than last year. Crop quality is expected to be good, but harvest samples indicate protein levels below average.
As durum is grown away from the areas most severely affected by adverse weather, the 8% decline in output to 5.1Mt is mainly the result of a reduction in area. While some recovery in exports from last year's low level is anticipated, ending stocks are also expected to rise. Full crop year prospects ultimately depend on early 2010 North African crops.
The 37% decline in winter wheat production to 3.0Mt is also the result of a reduction from last year's unusually large area. While winter wheat production in western Canada continues to expand, it is still only a relatively small proportion of total wheat production.
The 22% decrease in estimated barley output to 9.2Mt results from a reduced harvested area and lower yields. Barley is more widely grown in Alberta where drought has been more of an issue than in other provinces. Improved harvest conditions in September may not have added much to overall production, but there is now plenty of good quality barley available for malting selection. US maize is imported into Western Canada to supplement domestic feed grain supplies.
Oat production is currently estimated at 2.9Mt, 32% below 2008. After two years of surplus supplies, the sown area declined sharply in 2009. Further, because of poor crop conditions, a larger than usual proportion of the crop is likely to have been taken as green feed. It is still not clear whether supplies of milling quality oats will be sufficient to meet US millers' needs.
Production of maize, mainly grown in eastern Canada, is projected at 9.7Mt, down 8% as a result of
a lower harvested area. The Ontario crop is not as late maturing as the US crop with a warm September helping to speed maturity.
There is a general expectation that canola production will be larger than the current Statistics Canada estimate of 10.3Mt which is 19% below the 2008 crop. Canola with its indeterminate growth habit is believed to have benefited more than other crops from the very favourable September weather. The Chinese restrictions on imports of canola shipments with blackleg infection have made export prospects more uncertain than usual.
Production of soyabeans grown mainly in Eastern Canada at 3.6Mt is up 8% from last year with a larger area more than offsetting lower estimated yields. Yields, however, may be better than forecast at the beginning of September. The crop has not been as late maturing as its US counterpart.
Flaxseed production, at 0.97Mt is up 12% from 2008 with a 10% increase in sown area only partially offset by lower yields. With the EU and Canada mutually dependent on one another in the flaxseed market, prospects in this market are very uncertain until the EU is able to resolve its restrictions on imports of Canadian flaxseed arising from unapproved genetically modified material, or Canada is able to assure supplies free of this material.
Prospects for 2010
Soil moisture conditions prior to freeze-up are very variable. In the western half of the Prairies top soil and sub soil moisture levels are low and 2010 crop development will likely be more than usually dependent on timely and adequate precipitation during the growing period. In the eastern half, soil moisture reserves are more normal and more latitude exists in terms of weather in the spring.