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Canadian Seeding Intentions

- Tuesday May 11, 2010


This analysis featured in the May 11, 2010 issue of the HGCA's MI Prospects, Volume 12, Issue 22

Canadian seeding intentions show an increase in spring wheat, oats and canola area while intended durum, barley and field pea plantings are expected lower. Canadian farmers also plan a larger summer fallow area of 5% this year. However, actual plantings are likely to be influenced by improved moisture conditions.

The Statistics Canada Seeding Intentions Survey which was conducted in late March indicated that Canadian farmers planned to sow 25.4Mha to the nine main spring crops (Table 1). This is more than 2% below last year's intended area but less than 1% below actual plantings in 2009.

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Canadian 2010 Seeding Intentions

The overall reduction in spring seeding intentions is mainly the result of a 5% rise in summer fallowing intentions and smaller sown areas to winter wheat and rye. The lower winter crop area undoubtedly reflected the late 2009 harvest and is counter to longer term trends. The same is true of summer fallow although very dry conditions in the western Prairies and generally less favourable market prospects may also be a motivation.

Specific crop area allocations were generally as expected. The biggest change was a 35% cut in the durum area to just under 1.5Mha which would be the smallest area since 1993. With a couple of successive above average crops in North Africa, trade prospects for durum are less favourable at the moment. Most of the large reduction in the durum area appears to be sown to spring wheat instead. Spring wheat sowing intentions are for 7.34Mha, up almost 5% from last year's intentions and 7% higher than actual 2009 plantings.

The market prospect for milling quality wheat in the Pacific area appears to have held up better than those around Europe. In a southern Prairie regional context, spring and durum wheats tend to substitute well agronomically, particularly when the level of subsoil moisture is a concern.

Another record canola area is indicated at 6.84Mha, 13% above last year's intentions and 4% above actual 2009 area. Despite some marketing challenges in the two major Canadian markets, the US and China, canola prices have held up remarkably well and, taking account of seed and products, exports will be close to last year's record. The growth in the canola area is a continuing trend.

In the case of the other major growth crop, dry field peas, markets have been less forgiving and it has been a relatively disappointing season. As a result, the intended pea area is down 14% on last year's intended area and 4% below the actual 2009 area at 1.47Mha.

The barley area, at 3.4Mha, is 12% below last year's intentions and 4% below the actual sown area in 2009, reflecting current unfavourable market prospects for domestic feed and export malt. Oats area intentions are, however, up 1% from last year's intentions and 7% higher than the actual 2009 area. Last year's harvest was the smallest since the drought in 2001 and a burdensome supply situation has been worked off over the course of 2009/10.

Maize and soyabean intended planting, mainly in eastern Canada and adjacent to the US Corn Belt, are estimated at 1.22M and 1.43Mha, down 1 and 2.5%, respectively. As usual, they are mirroring US cropping trends.

As noted earlier there was general concern over emerging drought conditions when the survey was taken in late March. In late April a succession of weather fronts have brought moisture to almost all drought-concerned areas. This will favour the sowing of small sown crops, particularly canola, certainly at the expense of summer fallow and probably also of wheat.

With the recently announced increase in US loan rate for wheat, the US subsidization of durum exports through their Loan Deficiency Program payment has made the marketing of durum that much more challenging for others.

David Walker (001) 780 434 7615


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