open i

By Date of Publication 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
• Beef Trade, BSE, Growth Hormones, etc.
• Genetically Modified Crops
• Other Topics

Cereal Markets

1. December 9, 2009: US Maize and Ethanol - The US maize supply situation is expected to remain relatively tight for some time with expanding demand particularly for fuel ethanol production helping absorb large crops.
2. November 25, 2009: Canadian Crop Update - Production is lower due to the very variable but generally late and poor growing conditions. Quality, however, has not suffered as much as was initially anticipated.
3. November 11, 2009: Oat Market Update - UK and EU oat markets appeared oversupplied last year, but with smaller crops in 2009 look in better balance this year.
4. October 12, 2009: HGCA Annual Outlook Conference - Summary
5. September 29, 2009: ANALYSIS: North American Wheat Supply and Demand - Exportable supplies for US wheat are above average,but prospects for reduced Canadian output will likely mean lower exports.
6. September 1, 2009: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Progress - US winter wheat harvest is slightly better-than-average and spring sown crop prospects are generally excellent. Canadian crop prospects are mixed and generally below average.
7. July 20, 2009: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Update, July 2009 - US crop prospects are now relatively favourable despite delays in spring sowing. On the Canadian Prairies prospects are for below average crops.
8. June 22, 2009: ANALYSIS: Canada - A Spring to forget - Canadian Prairie crop prospects are modest as a result of a miserable spring.
9. May 25, 2009: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Update - Spring sowing has been delayed in both the US and Canada and the next few weeks will prove more critical than usual in terms of harvest outcomes.
10. April 28, 2009: ANALYSIS: Canadian Seeding Intentions - spring wheat and field pea sowings up 6 and 5%, durum, canola and oats down 5,7 and 9%. Summer fallow is down 1%.
11. April 28, 2009: ANALYSIS: Emerging US Crop Prospects - crop conditions are mixed for winter wheats and soil too wet for rapid field work for spring wheat and maize.
12. April 14, 2009: ANALYSIS: US Prospective Plantings - for maize and soybeans are close to those of this season, but the supply situation would change.
13. March 17, 2009: ANALYSIS: US Export Sales and Shipments - With sales cumulated last year being worked off, export shipment prospects are better than current sales indicate.
14. March 3, 2009: ANALYSIS: USDA Baseline Projection 2009 - Prior projections indicated that the fuel ethanol phenomena would inhibit US grain and oilseed export growth. But 2009 projections envisage long-term growth.
15. December 9, 2008: ANALYSIS: Canadian Wheat Update - A relative large and good quality Canadian wheat crop is expected to result in well above average Canadian exports.
16. November 10, 2008: ANALYSIS: Oat Market Update - UK and European oat production has increased. The UK market appears relatively well balanced with further increases in milling demand but European prospects are less favourable as increased supplies compete in feed markets.
17. November 10, 2008: ANALYSIS: Canadian Barley Situation - With relatively low supplies but favourable quality and an advanced sales position, Canada is likely to sustain malting barley exports in a much more competitive market.
18. September 29, 2008: ANALYSIS: US and Canadian Wheat Prospects - are less favourable than last year but those for hard wheats have held up better than those for soft wheats which compete more directly with increased supplies from across Europe.
19. August 18, 2008: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Update - prospects are more favourable than a year ago, with a recovery in US maize and soyabean crop conditions and above average yield prospects for Canadian crops.
20. August 4, 2008: ANALYSIS: US Maize Crop Development - the recovery from excessive moisture concerns has been dramatic.
21. July 7, 2008: ANALYSIS: Outstanding US Export Sales - probably a good reflection of the anxiety of importers over the adequacy of world supplies.
22. June, 2008: ANALYSIS: 2008 Australian Pulse Prospects - concerns are already developing over Australia's Oct/Nov harvest: featured in the summer 2008 Alberta Pulse Crop News.
23. June 23, 2008: ANALYSIS: The Worth of Wheat - after Inflation - which has eroded the real value of everything including wheat.
24. May 26, 2008: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Update - A late spring in North America means that crop prospects are less certain at this time than they normally are.
25. April 14, 2008: ANALYSIS: US 2008 Prospective Plantings - the USDA’s survey indicated that US farmers plan to plant a total of 104.9Mha, up 1.9Mha from 2007, the largest area since 2000. Wheat export potential is maintained, maize reduced.
26. March 31, 2008: ANALYSIS: Futures Market Prices - not for the moment reflecting meaningful value.
27. March 3, 2008: ANALYSIS: US Outlook Conference in Brief - interest centered on the major commodity supply use and price projections for the major crops, the first for 2008/09.
28. February 19 2008: ANALYSIS: International Fertilizer Prices - although a world wide phenomenon, the recent rise may not be sustained. But supplies are unlikely to pressure prices for some time.
29. December 10, 2007: ANALYSIS: North American Review - 2007 - This year has been anything but ordinary for North American grain and oilseed markets.
30. November 26, 2007: ANALYSIS: Oats Situation and Outlook - The European oat crop is larger this year, as yields have generally improved. But after a succession of years of declining area and output oats are not in surplus.
31. October 29, 2007: ANALYSIS: US Food and Feed Markets - tight global supply situation for wheat and a very large US maize crop have resulted in unprecedented price premium for US wheat over maize.
32. October 2, 2007: ANALYSIS: Wheat as a Component of Bread - since wheat is a very small component of the cost of bakery products and bakery products are a small component of consumer expenditures, it is difficult to see how wheat price increases can survive as a political issue.
33. September 18, 2007: ANALYSIS: Canadian Crop Update - well above average temperatures in July in the southern Prairies cut into yield potential but seeded area has had a larger impact with a shift from wheat to barley, oats and canola and from maize to soyabeans.
34. August 21, 2007: ANALYSIS: Ocean Freight Rates for Dry Bulk Cargoes - have increased to record highs this year with continued growth in trade of iron ore, coal and steel combined with port congestion. A recent surge in North American wheat sales may have temporally added to this.
35. July 24, 2007: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Update - crop prospects are very favourable with a major shift in area to maize from soyabeans resulting in a better balance in prospects between commodities than existed earlier in the year.
36. June 18, 2007: ANALYSIS: Canola to take a pause - moving an ever increasing supply of Canadian canola will be an especially severe challenge in 2007-08. (517 words)
37. June 17, 2007: Wheat Markets and the Lammas Spike - if the current run up in wheat prices is a between crops phenomena caused by a late start to harvest this will soon be known.(715 words)
38. May 29, 2007: ANALYSIS: US Crop Update - Anticipated demand for US maize this coming crop year is sufficient to support indirectly the market for wheat and soyabeans, despite generally very favourable harvest prospects for all three crops.
39. April 17, 2007: ANALYSIS: Fuel and Fertilizer Situation - The increase in the US maize area may lead to fertilizer shortages causing more soyabeans than currently anticipated to be seded.
40. April 17, 2007: ANALYSIS: 2007 US Prospective Plantings - The 15% increase in maize area came mainly at the expense of soyabeans, wheat and cotton with some movement out of conservation. Price implications may not be as negative as originally anticipated.
41. March 20, 2007: ANALYSIS: Canola markets, rising risks - record supplies of Canadian canola have moved at respectable prices, but increasing output further may be a greater gamble than it appears this year. (350 words)
42. Feb 20, 2007: ANALYSIS: World Coarse Grain Outlook - expanding US fuel ethanol and global feed use suggests a favourable outlook for coarse grains for at least the medium-term.
43. January 25, 2007: Canola oil - beauty in the eye of the beholder - EU bio diesel related demand for canola oil is almost certainly stronger than any food need could be expected to be. (700 words)
44. January 24, 2007: A different world with fuel ethanol - US president George Bush's "State of the Union Address" dispells any doubts about the lasting impact of energy markets on agriculture. (470 words)
45. Dec 11, 2006: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Review - US wheat exports limited by reduced crop. US maize supplies tight despite large crop. US soyabean supplies appear more than adequate. Canadian crops are average in size, but exceptional in quality.
46. Nov 27, 2006: ANALYSIS: Oat Market Outlook - This year's bigger UK oat crop has increased availability on domestic markets for 2006/07, while for the EU-25 as a whole another season of tight supply is anticipated.
47. Oct 31, 2006: ANALYSIS: US Wheat Exports - The US wheat price outlook, although very favourable, is less certain than normal at this time of year.
48. Oct 3, 2006: ANALYSIS: US Maize Outlook - generally favourable weather conditions are expected to result in the second largest crop on record, but even this has not prevented a forecast for a sharp decline in US end-season maize stocks.
49. Sept 19, 2006: ANALYSIS: Canadian Grain and Oilseed Update - After excellent conditions for crop establishment on the Canadian Prairies in spring, yield potential was lost during July, due to hot weather, resulting in generally only average yields.
50. August 21, 2006: ANALYSIS: Ocean Freight Rates - for grains and oilseeds, are higher than a year ago, but a longer-term downward trend which emerged after rates peaked in 2004 remains.
51. June 26, 2006: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Update - US winter wheat crop is quite as poor as expected but US and Canadian spring sown crops are generally off to an excellent start.
52. May 31, 2006: ANALYSIS: USDA Forecasts - tighter global grain supply with lower wheat output and increased coarse grain consumption. World oilseed production is forecast to decline slightly.
53. May 2, 2006: ANALYSIS: Canadian Seeding Intentions - Wheat area higher, but canola area sharply down
54. April 19, 2006: ANALYSIS: Emerging US Supply Prospects - Early crop progress reports and prospective planting survey results suggest declining US wheat supplies.
55. April 3, 2006: ANALYSIS: Energy and Fertiliser Costs - With dramatic increases in energy and fertiliser costs farmers across the globe are looking at ways to economise.
56. February 6, 2006: ANALYSIS: US Winter Wheat Prospects - area estimates together with crop development reports suggest another relatively modest US winter wheat crop with market prospects not threatened by current harvest expectations.
57. November 28, 2005: ANALYSIS: Oats Situation and Outlook - With declining EU oats production, prices have risen above those for other coarse grains. The UK harvested the smallest area on record and will need to import.
58. November 14, 2005: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Update - The US harvested a relatively small wheat crop, another large maize crop but a smaller soyabean crop. The Canadian harvest was a relatively large one, but quality was a little disappointing.
59. September 19, 2005: ANALYSIS: US Maize Crop 2005 - second in size only to last year's exceptionally large crop meeting anticipated domestic and typical export demand without resulting in a material change in price depressing carry-over stocks.
60. September 5, 2005: ANALYSIS: Canadian Crop Conditions - With mostly good crop prospects, Canada will have abundant supplies but export quality dependent on favourable harvest weather.
61. August 22, 2005: ANALYSIS: Ocean Freight Update - ocean freight rates are in a rather erratic downward trend with capacity of the dry bulk fleet more than matching prospects for sustainable demand for cargoes.
62. July 26, 2005: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Update, July 2005 - US winter wheats have deteriorated but a mediocre crop is still anticipated, spring wheats are developing favourably, prospects for maize and soybeans weather prone. Canadian prospects very mixed, but in aggregate favourable
63. June 13, 2005: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Development - slightly below average US winter wheat crop, area sown to maize and soyabeans is again large and crop development on the Canadian prairies favourable.
64. May 24, 2005: ANALYSIS: Canola - Canada and Australia Update - both expecting lower output.
65. April 18, 2005: ANALYSIS: Emerging North American Crop Prospects - US wheat area smallest since 1972, maize up 3%, soybeans down 2% and field conditions almost as good as a year ago
66. April 4, 2005: ANALYSIS: World Wheat Trade - Import Perspective - the 11 largest importing countries only account for half of net imports.
67. March 21, 2005: ANALYSIS: US Fuel and Fertilizer Costs - increases US costs may influence spring seeding decisions.
68. Feb. 21, 2005: The price of bread and such - farmers might benefit by learning price propaganda techniques from food processors. (500 words)
69. December 13, 2004: ANALYSIS: US and Canadian Wheat Quality - The quality of North American spring wheat harvests has been adversely effected by poor harvesting conditions.
70. November 15, 2004: ANALYSIS: Oat Situation and Outlook - European oat prices are tied to improved supplies of other feed grains, prices for which are expected to remain intervention bound.
71. October 18, 2004: ANALYSIS: 2004 HGCA Market Outlook Conference - this year's favourable global harvest is expected to meet expanding demand for cereals but the poor quality of the UK harvest has added to the challenge of lower prices.
72. September 3, 2004: ANALYSIS: Canadian Crop Update - an early frost puts in doubt earlier estimates for Canadian output of grains recovering to normal levels. Canola is likely to be most severely affected and barley least.
73. August 23, 2004: ANALYSIS: A Longer Term Perspective on Ocean Freight - an unprecedented increase in rates is likely to continue to have a material impact on the costs of grain trade.
74. July 26, 2004: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Update -
75. July 2004: The Fuel Ethanol Phenomenon - Prospects for fuel ethanol seem assured - but some level of government incentive is necessary to kick start the industry, says David Walker.
76. June 28, 2004: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Update - Very favourable crop development needed to ease tight US maize supply . Canadian grain supplies not expected to fully recovery from 2001 and 2002 droughts.
77. May 17, 2004: ANALYSIS: UK Weather Update - Despite unusual sowing conditions grain yield expectations are normal except for OSR which are lower. A late harvest could result in early price volatility.
78. April 19, 2004: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Prospects - The threat of drought has abated in the US, but still threatens on the Canadian Prairies.
79. March 22, 2004: ANALYSIS: Price Events Since 1970 - review of events similar to last year's 40 percent rise in UK wheat prices.
80. Dec.22, 2003: ANALYSIS: US Grain Consumption - the influence of US output on international markets is declining due mainly to the quiet growth in US domestic consumption.
81. December 18, 2003: Of Wheat and Bread - As day follows night, an increase in wheat prices has been followed by an announcement by the bakeries of an increase in bread prices excused, of course, by the increase in wheat and flour prices. (480 words)
82. Nov 10, 2003: ANALYSIS: North American Wrap Up - Total supplies of North American grain and oilseeds, while higher than a year ago - soyabeans excepted, are not large in a longer term perspective.
83. Oct. 13, 2003: ANALYSIS: Oats situation - With generally favourable oats' harvests in the three major oats exporting countries more normal trade conditions will return to international markets. UK supplies of oats are large, and will need to be competitively priced.
84. Sept. 29, 2003: ANALYSIS: US Spring Crop Update - spring wheats yielded well, but low area and stocks mean supplies are not burdensome. Hot weather in late July and early August did little damage to maize but dramatically impacted on soybean prospects.
85. Sept. 1, 2003: ANALYSIS: Canadian Crop Situation - Canadian cereal and oilseed crops look to have recovered from the drought-ravaged 2002 crop, but the 2004 crop should not be taken for granted as it is heavily on moisture availability over winter and spring.
86. June 9, 2003: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Prospects - both the US and Canada now expect a significant increase in output from last year's drought. This is needed to meet consumption and build stocks.
87. April. 14, 2003: ANALYSIS: North American Crop Prospects - based on current conditions, improved, although not historically large wheat crops are likely, enabling the US and Canada to regain export markets lost this year.
88. Mar. 17, 2003: ANALYSIS: Canadian Malting Barley Situation - Following back-to-back droughts Canadian malt and malting barley are very limited but a full recovery in supplies is possible by the end of the year.
89. Feb. 17, 2003: ANALYSIS: Oats Situation and Outlook - With the small crop in Canada, Scandinavian exports to the US have increased. UK exports have benefited but not prices.
90. Dec. 23, 2002: ANALYSIS: North American Grain Review - while US export sales have continued at a respectable rate in view of limited supplies, prices continue to back off from their late summer highs.
91. Dec. 9, 2002: ANALYSIS: Early 2002/03 Prospects - the International Grain Council's(IGC) first projection of world wheat production for 2003 provides a very early basis for evaluating market prospects for next season.
92. November 2002: The Great Grain Give Away - the spread between US and Back Sea port grain prices suggest a give away. This will be confirmed if grain supplies from this source dry up.
93. Oct. 14, 2002: SUMMARY: 2002 HGCA Market Outlook Conference - The challenges and opportunities from "Trading in an Open Market," the theme of the conference, are well illustrated.
94. Sept. 17, 2002: ANALYSIS: US Market Update - prices have risen significantly since early June, mainly as a result of poor harvest prospects, but consumption prospects will be more critical this autumn. - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
95. August 19, 2002: ANALYSIS: Canadian Crop Update - Although it is too early for an accurate estimate, a second successive drought-reduced crop is expected. Canada will be virtually absent from barley markets until after the 2003 harvest. - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
96. June 10, 2002: ANALYSIS: UK Weather Update - 2002 crop conditions, so far and for the most part, have been relatively favourable and crop development reflect it. The contrast to last year is marked. - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
97. April 15, 2002: ANALYSIS: US and Canadian Spring Cropping - Wheat sensitive to drought developments this spring, maize quiet except for summer weather . - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
98. Feb. 4, 2002: ANALYSIS: World and EU Oats Update - Strong prices reflect solid US niche market demand in a season when supplies of suitable quality are short. - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
99. Nov. 25, 2001: ANALYSIS: Canadian Crop Update - following severe drought Canada harvested its smallest crop since 1988. The shortfall in output will result in lower exports and minimal end of season stocks. - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
100. Oct. 18, 2001: More than incompetence..., betrayal - the EU commission decision to reduce import levies for cereals from eastern Europe was plainly wrong. It will not achieve its objective and is beyond its political mandate.
101. Oct. 16, 2001: EU Commission undermines Agenda 2000 CAP reforms - the EU Commission decision to reduce cereal import levies may have only limited market implications, but it raises questions about decision making in political and competency terms. (990 words)
102. August 6, 2001:ANALYSIS: Canadian Crop Update - the implications of unfavourable weather conditions may be pronounced for barley and oilseed rape markets. - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
103. June 25, 2001: ANALYSIS: Exceptional UK Weather - conclusions are drawn on the impact of a very wet winter on UK grain supplies for next season. - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
104. May 29, 2001: ANALYSIS: CEEC Grain Update - Eastern Europe, usually a net exporter, may manage a low level of net exports next year after very poor crops and net imports this year. - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
105. Feb. 19, 2001: ANALYSIS: Pulse Market Review - Market prospects for pulses seem relatively solid and appear an attractive spring seeding option. - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
106. Nov. 13, 2000:ANALYSIS: Canadian Cereal Situation - Total wheat production slightly lower with durum up, barley production slightly higher but malting quality supplies limited and at a premium - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
107. Sept. 12, 2000: The UK malting barley and the CWB’s PRO surprise - Malting barley markets both in the UK and internationally are far from being a write off. This comes as a pleasant surprise with most grain markets, most places, heading for the South Pole.
108. June 12, 2000:ANALYSIS: The European Cereal Market Cycle - how European cereal markets work with changing market conditions, reviews current and emerging prospects and offers advice for next season when markets could come under the direct influence of world prices - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
109. February 7, 2000:ANALYSIS: International Grain Production Costs in Perspective - explains why international comparisons are of more than academic interest, compares UK, US and Canadian costs, and draws conclusions - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
110. November 22, 1999: ANALYSIS: Intervention and UK Cereals Market - Outlines the role of Intervention in UK cereal markets, reviews how the EU intervention support mechanism has been eroded and illustrates this over the last 30 months - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.
111. June 21, 1999: ANALYSIS: Drilling with the Market in Mind: In the past UK farmers have based plating decisions on EU farm policy. As EU prices approach world levels markets will play a larger role. Frmers should actively seek forward pricing opportunities when changing their cropping plans to take advantage of market prices - featured in HGCA's MI Prospects.