UK Weather Update

-Monday, June 10, 2002

Key points

• UK rainfall close to average last autumn.
• Last season well above average
• Crop pattern more normal this season

Drilling and growing conditions, so far and for the most part, have been relatively favourable for the 2002 harvest and the development of cereal crops reflect it. This is marked contrast to the situation at this time last year.

Conditions for drilling of cereals last fall, if not totally ideal, seem to have allowed farmers to drill all that they had planned in terms of winter cereals. Rainfall was below average for two of the three autumn months(Chart 1). A total of 2.65 million hectares of wheat, barley and oats went into the ground before December 1. While this is below the three million hectares conventionally sown before set-aside was introduced in the late 1980's, after allowance for ten percent set-aside it seems that almost everyone must have managed to get what they planned into the ground.

In contrast, in 2000 after three very wet months only 1.89 million hectares had been drilled by December 1. As was to be expected most of the recovery in seed area this season went back into wheat(Chart 2).

As last autumn was also warmer than normal, winter cereals developed well over the last months of 2001. In contrast, with less than ideal seed beds, crops did not develop well in the autumn of 2000.

Weather has also been relatively good for spring work with March being particularly favourable for field work. Almost all spring cereals, therefore, were drilled on time and into well prepared seed beds. Last year the weather failed to cooperate when farmers were looking to seed as much as an extra 800,000 hectares they had not been able to drill in the autumn and much of the crop went in as much as a month late into relatively poor seed beds. The increase in set aside last year suggests that some plans for drilling were simply abandoned.

The contrast between the challenge of drilling last year's crop and this is, not surprisingly, reflected in current crop development. While last year at this time the prospects were for at best average yields on a reduced acreage, this year at least an average crop can be expected.

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